Turn European youth unemployment into NATO deployment

Breaking up, it turns out, is not so hard to do. It is a simple matter of a stupid vote.

The “Brexit” result is a shock to the international financial system, a threat to post-Cold War stability and raises tensions in a region with a historically bad war habit.

Brexit dealt a new blow to European integration and collective strength, and adds pressure to a further weakened European Union already facing strategic challenges from places like Russia.

Despite Brexit’s destabilizing potential, there is one European-wide institution that promises to be a unifying European political structure. It is NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a voluntarily built, Cold War-tested and generationally supported collective security alliance binding America to free, liberal democratic European states.  Read more

In foreign affairs, Obama clears the decks, sets the stage for next president

President Barack Obama is spending his political capital, one country at a time.

Going around the world to bridge relations with former adversaries, recognize and right historical wrongs, or write new chapters in an evolving world order is seldom a president’s first-term work. It is the politically difficult work done at the end of a leader’s last term, a time when he is free of re-election concerns.

President Barack Obama hugs Shigeaki Mori, an atomic bomb survivor, during a ceremony at Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park in Hiroshima, Japan, last month. Obama became the first sitting U.S. president to visit the site of the world’s first atomic bomb attack, bringing global attention to survivors and to his unfulfilled vision of a world without nuclear weapons. (Carolyn Kaster - The Associated Press)

In the last few weeks, the president traveled to Japan and Vietnam, executing on his rebalance to Asia, a strategy that will be inherited by future presidents. But he was able to do more.  Read more.

June 1st Event in Sacramento

Join me in Sacramento for a talk sponsored by the World Affairs Council and the Sacramento Bee on June 1st.

How Safe Are We?

EgyptAir Flight 804 went down this week, and experts immediately suspected an act of terrorism. Downed flights and TSA airport checks are high-visibility, regular reminders that we live in a dangerous world.

Amid the daily media noise and political hype surrounding war and terror, Americans understandably ask: “How safe are we?”

In a world of woes, it should be comforting to know we are pretty darn safe.

Perspective matters. In the United States, cars kill more people than terrorists. Bathrooms are more dangerous than airports or rock concerts.  Read more.

In choosing female leaders, U.S. trails many nations

Every election brings new questions about the qualities and character of national leadership, in the United States and abroad.

In the 2008 presidential election, the big question was whether America could elect a nonwhite man – in this case, an African American – as president. Up until then, all U.S. presidents had been white Christian males of European descent.

Corazon Aquino served as president of the Philippines from 1986-1992. BULLIT MARQUEZ Associated Press

But disruption was in the air. France, for example, had selected a Greco-Hungarian of Jewish ancestry as president the year before Barack Hussein Obama’s victory.

In 2016, as the country moves through its primary season, U.S. voters are considering making history in other ways. Will they elect a septuagenarian Jewish socialist, a boisterous billionaire political neophyte, a Cuban American born outside the United States? Or, after a few years of primary female also-rans, finally elect a woman to the highest office in the land?  Read more 

Impact of Panama Papers depends on type of government

Warren Buffett is known for his pithy sayings and homespun investment philosophy. One Buffettism states that “it takes 20 years to build a reputation and five seconds to destroy it.”

This is as true in business as it is in government. It requires less time to take down institutions and destroy public trust than it does to develop and strengthen them.

Russian President Vladimir Putin argues the Panama Papers are a foreign conspiracy aimed at toppling him and weakening Russia. Mikhail Klimentyev The Associated Press

Enter Mossack Fonseca, a Panamanian legal firm specializing in hiding offshore assets. Revelations regarding the firm’s clients and capital flows are the latest salvo on government credibility and citizen credulity.

The recently leaked 11.5 million-document dump known as the Panama Papers – a load of Mossack Fonseca’s private internal documents – is roiling the waters for a handful of leaders who wanted or needed to cache their cash.

One minute a prime minister is a respected leader, then next he is judged a shady figure in the court of public opinion.  Read more.

Cheating for gold defies purpose, spirit of Olympics

Olympia, GREECE

Athletes competing in the ancient Olympic games were venerated for their prowess and ability. Here, on these original Olympiad grounds of now toppled temples and former glory, visitors are reminded of the elevated role honor played within competition.

Two thousand years ago, competitors heading toward the stadium tunnel walked between two rows of statues. On their right was a famous marble row of heroic athletes, victors all. On the left, however, stood 16 statues of Olympic cheaters, eternally dishonored and living in infamy. Their chiseled names remain visible to this day.

The Olympic message was as clear then as it is today: Don’t cheat!

Brazil’s political leaders are caught up in a bribery and kickback scheme involving government construction contracts that include Olympic facilities in Rio de Janeiro. Leo Correa AP

Unfortunately, the high stakes of national pride, professional athletics and simple hubris have led others to conclude that the more important lesson in sports competition is different: Don’t get caught cheating.

Doping, steroids, gender faking, age falsification, judge bribing, opponent knee-capping, hitchhiking to a marathon finish … the list of cheats is long and creative. Yet despite millennia of getting caught, cheaters abound.  Read more

Silencing ‘The Cannon,’ a social media phenom

Social media made him a star. He is a real estate mogul whose followers believe he speaks truth to power. As a result of his outspoken anti-establishment political posture and popularity, his party wants to shut him down.

He is, of course, “The Cannon.” Never heard of him? He is the man with 37 million social media followers on Sina Weibo – China’s top microblogging site – and the country’s ruling Communist Party just took him on by taking him offline.

The Cannon is Ren Zhiqiang’s nickname and what happens to him next is uncertain, but with such a big and passionate following, it will be difficult to disappear him either quickly or quietly. He is known as The Cannon because of the straight-talk missives he fires at the authorities. Cannon is not alone, however, in finding that speech in China is not free.  Read more.

Beyond Paris, questionable efforts to combat climate change

Germany has long been a leading advocate for confronting and ameliorating climate change. But actions speak louder than words – or signatures on an international accord. The recent Volkswagen scandal is only the latest case of climate policy hypocrisy.

Meeting in Paris last December, countries around the globe finally recognized the generally accepted scientific evidence that climate change is real. They also accepted some responsibility to do something about it.

To much fanfare, 195 countries, including Germany and the United States, signed the Paris Agreement pledging to hit targets to drop emissions, cut carbon and keep our aging Earth from experiencing too many hot flashes and cold extremities.

Developed democratic countries, pushed by their citizens, led the charge for a comprehensive agreement to atone for past polluting and to prevent developing states from repeating their own sins. Canada, England, France – they all chimed in and tried to convince, coerce and cajole those developing countries to be energy ascetics. That was a tough sell. The developing world now wants its turn to crank out the carbon and catch up to the already rich, gas-burning and global-warming recidivists.

Looking beyond the narratives of the industrialized world’s planned sacrifice, however, some of the stories seem a little less noble or credible.  Read More

World is ‘dangerously unprepared’ for the next epidemic

Mobile apps are a fabulous waste of time and infinitely diverting. Except for “Plague Inc.”

The object of this strategy game is to achieve biological annihilation of the world with a complex virus or bacterial infection that runs roughshod over borders, seeking warm and moist host bodies. People are infected and die regardless of their religion or nationality. “Plague” is an accelerated depiction of the race between finding a cure for disease and Armageddon.

Slower-motion, real-world infectious diseases are also mass-murdering terrors of the modern era – ones that usually get short shrift except when actual outbreaks occur.

Nearly a century ago, at the end of World War I, more people died of the Spanish Flu – somewhere between 20 million and 40 million – than had died in the “war to end all wars.” That influenza epidemic remains the deadliest disease in recorded history. Yes, more than the 14th century’s Black Death bubonic plague.

The newly resurrected Zika virus is not anywhere near as dangerous or deadly as the Spanish Flu. Zika is like the sniffles when compared to the Black Death. As with most diseases, not everyone gets infected, but everyone is affected.  Read more

Chinese year of living dangerously

Firecrackers and dancing dragons will welcome the Chinese New Year of the Red Fire Monkey in early February. The Monkey is one of 12 Chinese horoscope years that can predict wild success or portend catastrophic failure, depending on one’s level of superstition or gullibility.

One certain prediction this Monkey year: China is swinging toward interesting times.

Opaque markets, volatile stocks and moderating growth are just a few of the economic factors that will challenge China’s leadership and, consequently, global financial systems in 2016.

Suddenly, when China sneezes, the rest of the world may get the sniffles. Maybe even pneumonia.

Read more

Playing a Trump card in global politics

American presidential politics are crazy enough without having other countries getting involved. Despite a mixed track record where foreign endorsements have little to no effect on election outcomes, overseas observers do their best to be political kingmakers in the United States.

Donald Trump is the latest target of an active nonvoting collection of citizens and leaders from abroad. He is the nonpolitician many Europeans love to hate and some Middle Easterners hate to love.

Britain is considering a Trump ban following a popular petition to the UK parliament.

From an endorsement by Russian President Vladimir Putin to a popular petition for banishment from Britain, the Republican polling phenom is the subject of praise and pillory from foreigners.

His contested role in ISIS recruiting and Mexican deportation plans make him the ideal candidate for overseas institutions and individuals who profit by vilifying caricatured, self-aggrandizing Americans.

But can a foreign nation’s political pariah become America’s president? Can another country’s population or leadership have a direct effect on U.S. politics? There is no simple answer.  READ MORE

Turkey shoot with Russia damages alliance against ISIS

Russia is an active player and a necessary participant in any potential Syrian cease-fire and solution. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has worked overtime with his Russian counterpart to find an acceptable compromise under very difficult and bloody circumstances.

America rightfully continues to object to Russia’s Crimean annexation and unwavering support oSyrian President Bashar Assad. Despite this reality, the Obama administration seems prepared to work with Russia toward a more important and immediate goal: Jointly fighting and defeating ISIS.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan acted recklessly when his country shot down a Russian warplane, and the costs for his action get passed to others, says commentator Markos Kounalakis. Yasin Bulbul Presidential Press Service

Achieving a real Russian-American anti-ISIS fight is tough enough in this environment, and there is added pressure for collaboration following the Paris, Sharm el Sheikh and San Bernardino terror attacks.

Despite the poisoned political climate, Russia and the United States were making diplomatic progress … until America’s NATO ally Turkey shot down a transgressing Russian fighter jet. As a result, Turkey derailed talks and temporarily killed any Russo-American deal.

Even worse, when Turkey downed the Russian Su-24, it could have triggered immediate Russian retaliation. Tensions between NATO and Russia reached a post-Cold War peak. Some analysts suggested Turkey’s hair-trigger action brought us to the brink of World War III.  Read more

TV Commentary on President Obama's Oval Office Speech

On-air this Sunday evening (12/6) at KRON 4 following President Obama's Oval Office speech. Good to get a chance to discuss president's assurances and strategies. Good crew at the TV station, great questions, and enough time for dialogue.

View the video below...

Give Middle East refugees a fighting chance

Boots on the ground are the only means by which Islamic State will be ultimately denied its safe havens inside Syria and Iraq. Both feared and favored, boots means young men grinding out military victories and suffering unexpected defeats house by house, street by street in a foreign land far away.

Military planners agree that air campaigns can help contain Islamic State and that intelligence can tip off the world to planned attacks. But there is no cheap, easy or effective way to kill the culprits who are plotting the strategic collapse of civilized society. Boots on the ground are necessary for defeating them where they now freely organize and operate.

The question becomes: Whose boots?

A police officer organizes a throng queuing to get registered at a refugee center in the southern Serbian town of Presevo. Middle East refugees should be invited to join a new military force and given the training, resources and support needed to defeat Islamic State and liberate their homelands. Darko Vojinovic The Associated Press

Recent experience shows American boots should be the very last ones to hit the ground in the current fight. France and Russia have just suffered horrendous tragedies, but they should keep their troops off the battlefield, too. A big part of Islamic State’s strategy is to hit the civilized world with high-visibility, horrifying attacks as in Paris and lure foreign fighting forces onto their territory and into their trap.  Read more